Artificial Intelligence (AI), or ‘machine learning’, has been in the headlines lately, with fears of massive job losses as AI driven machines and software make humans obsolete. The recent announcement by Great West Life that 1500 jobs will be eliminated due to digital technology and automation seems to bear this out. The company did say there would be more investment in technology, which likely will create a few jobs, but a loss of 1500 jobs is certainly a cause of concern. With my two children just starting their careers, the relentless march of AI and automation has caused me to worry about their future career prospects and the quality of their lives.
How extensive will the job losses be? A Citibank / Oxford University report predicted 47% of U.S. jobs are at risk and 35% in the U.K. The report suggested that the average job loss in the OECD will be 57% and in China the impact will be 77%.
A Washington Post article reported a White House study that predicted millions of jobs lost in the U.S- primarily among less educated and less skilled workers. This would widen the chasm between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’. The middle class would continue to shrink as the low income demographic grows, putting more pressure on social security and the need for extensive support for technical / scientific education.
Forrester Research recently updated their 2015 report Death of a (B2B) Salesman that predicted 1 million B2B salespeople in the U.S. will be displaced by 2020. Much of this is due to the ongoing development of internet technology that enables B2B buyers to research products and services, correspond with ‘bots’ and to order low consideration, routine purchases through supplier and distributor websites. Many buyers find ordering online for these types of purchases much more convenient. If the primary value of a salesperson is taking orders they are at great risk of being replaced by AI driven technology.
Forrester also predicted a 10% increase in consultative B2B salespeople – individuals that help customers solve problems and implement new technology and systems. The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) and Energy Management are two examples where well trained salespeople can offer true value to their customers and for their companies. These more complex product and service solutions are typically more profitable. It will require more training – provided by the company but also through the salesperson’s own initiative. Creativity and interpersonal communication skills are not easily replicated by AI.
Marketing will also be affected by AI, but maybe in a more positive sense. B2B marketers have often been a poor cousin to sales – the ‘Arts and Crafts’ department. This will change over the next few years as AI automation bots and analytics evolve – under the direction of marketers.
AI promises to automate many of the ‘mechanical’ aspects of marketing. Automation platforms will become more intuitive. They will update CRM data (something few salespeople enjoy doing), provide content recommendations to customers visiting the website and execute web based customer service. Marketers will have time to concentrate on the important basics: understanding the market and competition, positioning the product / service, developing programs and campaigns to generate leads and help those consultative salespeople generate profitable business.
But what about the overall impact of AI and the potential for mass unemployment? A recent report in The Economist may offer a more balanced look at the issue. Studies over the years show technology and automation may destroy some jobs, but also often redefine jobs and increase job quality and productivity. Computers have the most part reallocated jobs, requiring new skills of workers.
Technology can also create new jobs. Joel Mokyr, a professor at Northwestern commented in The Economist article ‘We can’t predict what jobs will be created in the future but its always been like that’. Data analytics, web and app developers – few were predicting these jobs 30 years ago.
So I am not so concerned about my kids living in a lean-to and surviving on unemployment. There will be plenty of pain as AI transforms jobs as we know them. We need to train for the new, higher quality jobs that evolving technology will create new, higher quality jobs. Some will struggle and our social safety net could become more strained, but we will not see a The Terminator style post-apocalyptic future.
Job search advice includes positioning your skills and experience against the competition for the job. Now that competition includes Artificial intelligence. We should stop lamenting AI job ‘destruction’ and focus on the new, skilled jobs that will evolve. We need to ensure our children are prepared for this evolving job market.
Who knows? The promise of greater productivity providing more leisure for workers may finally arrive.
Ken Jure - Copywriter 
Good piece and great perspective. Reminds me of Twain’s famous quote, “Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated”. In absence of government interference, (although not a reliable assumption) Smith’s invisible hand will ensure a measured and controlled transition. As history marches on, let’s not drop the “A” in “AI”, something that Musk, Cook, Gates and even Hawking are perilously at the line if not having already crossed. That’s the real game changer!
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Adam Smith also warned of concentration of corporate power and its potential for abuse. What roles and responsibilities do firms have in retraining displaced workers?
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Yes, he certainly did, and that is the third leg of the capitalist stool referred to as “moral restraint”, the other two being economic freedom and political freedom. Kick any of these three legs out and the system falls. As much as I would agree that there is great responsibility for the retraining of displaced workers, amongst many other things a business can do to recognize the value of the individual, I believe most of those legs are in sorry shape and with the patient (doctor in this case) on life support I am not confident that the framework is any longer in place to properly address this need. Something else needs to happen first.
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So as concentration of economic power increases- primarly through fewer, but significantly more powerful large corporations and concentrated high net worth individuals – so does their political power. I see this as one of the roots of the problem. Government has an important role to provide public goods and regulate against negative externalities – and then let the pricing system of the market place do the rest.
Government has been corrupted by economic forces and notably by the international banking system.
I hope my small investment in Bitcoin continues to help send a longer term message.
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Oh yes and our debt based monetary system is very much tied back into a moral issue. Adam Smith’s lesser known, but more significant writing, in my humble opinion is his Theory of Moral Sentiments.
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I think we’re a long way from Ken’s original piece, but interesting thoughts nevertheless. If you accept the premise of Tytler’s Circle, where would you place us in our march through history?
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Yes, interesting, but as you suggest this train of discussion probably better on some other track.
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